A Republican Need
Get focused.
If you’re entrenched in the data and polls as much as I am - you’d be concerned. After reading about Obama’s $32.5 million quarter rake in, I think I’ll finally announce my thoughts against the advice of many close Republican friends.
It may be early to tell the nominations, however it’s not too early to read which way the nation is leaning. The Election of 2008 is a Democratic one. I wish it were not so, however it’s not something I alone can control.
Let’s go over some less obvious data. By less obvious I mean let’s ignore that fact that we look like the Party of chaos in the debates while the Democrats appear generally united (notice in 2004 most Americans saw the Democratic candidates as radical and crazy and they did not get elected). Democrats are raising more money than we can squeeze out of our senior citizens, the media hates this class of Republicans alienating them from Independent voters, New York Mayor Bloomberg just tossed his Republican Party membership, our online presence put frankly sucks (that’s a blog within itself), and when McCain or Rudy talk - it’s to a group of old white men in a hall the size of a classroom while Obama and Hillary excite entire towns.
Wow, that was a mouthful - and that’s the stuff I’m asking you to ignore.
Here’s some data from by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. “Interviews with 304 adults in New Hampshire who say they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary conducted by telephone on June 6-11, 2007. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.”
- 57% - No idea who you’ll vote for
- Most lean (narrowly) towards Romney(about 27%)
- Most believe Rudy has the best chance to beat a Democratic Nominee (31%)
- Top Issues: War in Iraq, Illegal immigration, Economy, Health care, Homeland security
- Abortion was only most important to 6%
- Gay Rights ranked amongst the lowest
This poll data is some of the most clear and concise data I think I’ve ever had the privilege to analyze. It revealed a chance - a win even. Sounds gravy, but it’s far from true now.
Republican strategists have successfully made people like me and others powerless. Republicans have cut off the average believer.
Republicans were tossed in 2006. Okay, I’m trailing without revealing the much convincing data.
I hate visiting Real Clear Politics, but I do it. In the head-to-head polls Rudy is in fact our greatest chance. I’m not rooting for Rudy, but I plan to vote a Republican over a Democrat (if I don’t stay home). Rudy’s chances where about 45% though. He would only win in about a little more over 4 out of every 10 polls, but short of half.
McCain showed a chance, but then again I’m not comfortable with the numbers in the head-to-head polls. Romney and Fred sound good, however let’s face it: Hillary sounds best. In fact, I dare say that there hasn’t been a more Presidential since President Reagan than Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Texas
I love Texas. I live in Texas. We are a leading state. It’s not just our electorate votes, it’s our historical influence over national politics in both parties.
Texas Republicans are polling, and I mean overwhelmingly, in support of McCain. Now the GOP here is loyal (although Representative Ron Paul is a cause for a pie in the face) and we’ll vote the nominee.
A common misconception is that Texas has always been Republican or at least has a weak Democratic Party. This is not true. Our Democratic Party is stronger than many states have combined. We’ve successfully been able to contain their victories in Texas, however new polling suggest that Texas as a whole is split 50/50 for 2008! Yes, Texas might turn blue.
No Republican will win without Texas.
I’d like to toot my horn regarding two things I’ve been saying for over a year now:
- This is a Moderate’s election. I dare say the most Moderate controlled election in modern times. Conservatives and the Religious Right won’t control this election.
- Hurricane Katrina pushed a tipping number of Democrats into Texas.
Yes, Hurricane Katrina will bite Republicans in the butt again.
Senator Mary Landrieu’s family has a historical political history in Louisiana, yet she was a few votes from losing the Senate election. When the polling data was isolated it was discovered that it was a few neighborhood’s in New Orleans (the ones flooded) that got her voted in. 5,788 votes - that’s it.
Assuming regular Louisiana politics, cough corruption cough, played no role in that 1996 election and the results were genuine, it shows real pathway for the Republicans in Louisiana to turn the entire state red.
In 2002 Landrieu won by about 4%, carrying the the same neighborhoods in New Orleans for the victory. 2005 wiped those neighborhoods. Those people are now in my state.
I am afraid.
There’s one way to victory, and officials use it in anti-Terrorism courses: Preparation.
The data is so clear. It shows us a huge loss. This loss is destined for the Oval Office and it seems like a couple of Senate seats.
My word to the Republicans strategists: If you must keep your job and ruin the country and our party please do the following:
- Forget the base - they failed us all once. 2006 wasn’t because of President Bush, although he’s not helping, it was because the base decided to play around.
- Use the Internet! How dumb can you get? I go to DNC.org 10 times before I visit GOP.com once.
- Encompass the Moderate vote and stop isolating people. The elitism must stop.
I have Republicans telling me that I’m crazy. We shall see. I’m not hopeless though. There is a way to win: We the People.
Let’s take charge. Let’s secure ‘08 and when we do fire all the Republicans who didn’t help. No more coattail riding boys. I’m two seconds away from filing as a Unaffiliated voter as well, but I’m doing my part.
A group of Conservatives and I are launching eConservative.org sometime in August. It’s for Conservatives, not Republicans. Do not confuse the two. Conservatives are a huge minority, while Republicans are a chosen minority. While eCon endorses neither party we believe the Republican Party to be more Conservative then the reasonable alternatives.
eCon has launched gopful.com. If we can invigorate and control the net - I am convinced that we can overpower the blundering Republican strategy, or lack thereof.
I’m a proud Conservative and a pissed off Republican. The numbers say we will lose……. so let’s do something about it. There’s just a little time.
July 2nd, 2007 at 11:46 am
I agree with you whole heartedly. The Republicans in Texas have been slightly cocky since the elections in 96. Mainly because they win. The tide is turning and will shock alot of Lone Star Republicans. Just look at the past elections in Dallas and Dallas County, almost entirely a Democrat win.
I am totally with you and can’t wait for the news media to start paying attention to the conservatives instead of just the Bible thumpers. Just let me know how I can help.
Tera
July 2nd, 2007 at 1:46 pm
Ali, I too am a proud Conservative and a pissed off republican. For the first time in my life last March, I registered as a republican for the sole reason of voting in the Ohio Gubernatorial primary — to make sure that Ken Blackwell here won the nomination.
I have always considered myself an Independent, but in recent years have realized that I was just a Conservative who had not made up his mind yet.
I have to take exception with you on something; the Republican Party must not pander to the moderates. Forgetting its base is what got the party in the mess that its in right now. For proof of that all you have to do is look at the grassroots effort of conservatives rising up through blogs, talk radio and by calling, emailing and faxing their elected representatives to make sure that the amnesty bill would not pass.
You’re candidate John McCain’s campaign is falling apart because of the sole fact that he has completely alienated the Conservative base of the republican party. He has been trying hard to sound like a conservative, at times, but has shown that he is nothing more then a liberal country club republican.
John McCain is no Conservative.
I know that to win a presidential election, you need the support of those in the middle as well as a few from the opposite party, but that’s not the way you win primaries. Democratic candidates need to appeal to the loony left in order to win their bid, then come more center in the general election. Same holds true for Republicans, except they have to appeal to the Conservative base of the party, something which McCain has been unable and dare I say unwilling to do.
McCain is now trailing in not just the polls, but the more important factor of money raised — he even had some staff quit over completely wrong stance on that horrible immigration bill. The press loves him — and of course they would, as the mainstream media loves liberals.
Three of the Senators running for the president voted for the amnesty for illegals bill —- McCain (R), Clinton (D), and Obama (D). hmmm what does that say? 80% of the population opposed this bill, and vowed that any Senator who voted for it would be removed in ‘08. Why can’t the so-called conservative take the hint?
The man he succeeded in office as Arizona Senator, Barry Goldwater, now that’s a Conservative — Mr. Conservative to be exact. He embodied what conservatism was all about: the individual over the ‘state’, personal liberty and freedom to choose. John McCain — not so much.
John McCain thinks he has a free pass to label himself a Conservative since unfortunately Goldwater himself urged McCain to move to Arizona and then gave him his blessings to run for his seat. He also does have an [R] after his name and is a POW. While his military service is applauded and much appreciated, none of those things make one a Conservative.
As I said before John McCain is a liberal Country club republican and NOT A CONSERVATIVE. He’s a big government guy who favors federal power to stifle dissent and views with which he disagrees. Case in point:
1) His recent votes on cloture for the immigration bill.
2) McCain/Feingold bill - (though I will admit my guy Fred Thompson was in favor of it too at the time.)
3) Even though he was a POW himself, John McCain has purposely intervened with the National Park Service to terminate the leases for veteran’s groups at the Vietnam War Memorial who set up sites devoted to the cause of the POWs yet to be brought home from Vietnam and Laos. This is because he himself was one of the people who has helped cover up the truth about the abandonment of these men.
Throughout his history as a US Senator John McCain has repeatedly shown a great amount of arrogance and a condescending, if not down right arrogant attitude to anyone who disagrees with him on almost every issue. Time and time again, through his very own actions, John McCain has shown himself not to be a conservative. And he is now wondering why his campaign is falling apart.
Ali, sorry to turn this thread into a bash McCain post — but I cannot with good conscious call myself a Conservative and an American Citizen who cares about the direction of his country — while supporting John McCain or any “fake” conservatives like him.
If the republican party is to have any hope it needs to not just listen to the Conservative base but actually become a Conservative party once again.
Pandering to liberals and moderates is only going to make things worse.
July 2nd, 2007 at 2:23 pm
I am confident that there will be a Republican president in ‘08. Just you see. The numbers might be against us now but we will prevail.
July 2nd, 2007 at 2:25 pm
Joe, I take great exception to the narrow-mindedness of your comment: “but I cannot with good conscious call myself a Conservative and an American Citizen who cares about the direction of his country — while supporting John McCain or any “fake” conservatives like him.”
I wont comment further for fear of losing a decent friend.
My Conservative credentials outweigh many and I do support McCain - call it what you may, however there is no fallacy in that logic and it is close to belittling to suggest that someone is less Conservative or not Conservative at all for supporting McCain.
Come on… Think past the ABC’s of politics… please… Do us all a favor.
July 3rd, 2007 at 11:30 am
Ali, I apologize if I offended you as that was not my intent. I did not mean to slander you as less of a conservative, I was just expressing my beliefs about McCain and the reason his campaign is falling apart — reaching out to moderates instead of Conservatives.
Once again, sorry if I offended you. That was not my intent.
July 6th, 2007 at 4:10 am
Joe we are partners in this great political discussion and friends.
No amount of heated-discussion will change that.
Thank you my friend for all you do!